The idea that there are no future facts is an important concept in understanding why predictions about extremely complex systems like the weather and markets do so poorly.1 This concept was first introduced by the philosopher David Hume in 1748 and was based on Aristotle's concept of the "law of contradiction.2" Hume argued that since cause and effect are not known until they have happened, there are no future facts.
This idea has major implications for predicting the future, particularly in complex systems. In an extremely complex system like the weather, there are just too many variables at play to make accurate predictions. Meteorologists use sophisticated mathematical models and computer simulations to predict the weather,3 but these models are still limited and can only take into account so many variables. As Hume argued, since the future has not yet happened, it is impossible to make any statement about it that can be considered true or false.
The same logic applies to predicting the stock market. There are just too many variables and unknowns to make accurate predictions about the future.4 The stock market is highly unpredictable and can change quickly in response to unexpected events, so any predictions made about it will always have a degree of uncertainty.
In addition to the complexity of these systems, there's also the issue of human behavior. In complex systems like the weather and the stock market, human behavior is a major factor. People's decisions and actions can have a major impact on the outcome of these systems, making it even more difficult to make accurate predictions.
This is why predictions about extremely complex systems like the weather and markets do so poorly. As David Hume argued, since the future has not yet happened, it is impossible to make any statement about it that can be considered true or false. This means that any predictions made about these systems will always be uncertain and unreliable. In addition, the complexity of these systems and the unpredictable nature of human behavior make predictions about them even more difficult.
Footnotes: 1. https://www.exploringideas.org/david-hume-no-future-facts/ 2. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/aristotle-logic/ 3. https://www.weather.gov/ess/meteorology 4. https://investopedia.com/articles/investing/101114/how-predict-stock-market.asp